Ontario could see 1,600 deaths from COVID-19 in April alone if stricter physical distancing measures aren’t followed — and hospital intensive care units could be swamped soon, modelling projections released by the province show.But hundreds of lives can be saved, with deaths in April limited to 200 and ICU capacity stretched but not overwhelmed, if the province adopts stricter interventions to limit person-to-person contact — and if residents comply with those orders, health officials said Friday.“If we do all that we can, we get a much better result,” said Peter Donnelly, the president of Public Health Ontario.The measures taken so far have thwarted far worse outcomes: 300,000 cases and 6,000 deaths by the end of April if left unchecked, the models suggest. As of 5 p.m. Friday, the province’s regional public health units were reporting 3,675 confirmed or probable cases of COVID-19 and at least 105 deaths.Premier Doug Ford, who ordered more commercial shutdowns soon after the models were released, pleaded with Ontarians to stay home, noting that 1,600 potential deaths is 50 a day or two an hour.“Each one could be your brother, your sister, your mother, your father, your grandparents or a friend,” he said.“What is the cost of a life? Is a life worth a picnic in a park? Is a life worth going to the beach? Is a life worth having a few cold ones with your buddies in the basement? The answer is no.”The researchers whose work underpinned Friday’s projections said forecasting the path of a new infectious disease is uncertain because of limitations on the data available which has muddied by Ontario’s laggard and limited testing.But they all agree that without strict physical distancing orders — and everyone in the province complying — thousands of lives will be lost.“What we can say is we have exponential growth in Ontario, which is a very scary thing. We have to bend that because ...
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