OTTAWA—A new Forum Research poll suggests a significant shift in voter intention after Monday’s English-language federal leaders’ debate.The poll, conducted Monday night and Tuesday morning, puts Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives ahead with 35 per cent support among decided and leaning voters. Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party trails at 28 per cent. Just last week, Forum put the Liberals ahead at 34 per cent to the Conservatives’ 31 per cent.But only half of respondents to the Forum poll actually watched the leaders’ debate — meaning the shift is not likely due only to a hidden haymaker missed by political observers during Monday’s chaotic tussle.But Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, cautions that numbers are often fluid in the immediate aftermath of a debate.“I would wait for confirmation polling, as this is the day after (the debate),” Bozinoff said, in an interview Tuesday evening.“Most campaigns are about a government’s record, and it really gets focused during the debate, during those couple hours. And I think we’re seeing it in these numbers.”Despite a strong couple of weeks from NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh on the campaign trail — including a well-received performance in Monday’s leaders’ debate — the New Democrats (13 per cent) remain deadlocked with Elizabeth May’s Green party (12 per cent). Neither party has budged much from where they began their campaign.But the top-level national numbers are not as important in Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system. Much more interesting are the regional breakdowns — and the implications for the number of seats the parties can pick up in a given province.Forum found the Liberals are still doing relatively well in the electorally all-important provinces of Ontario and Quebec (35 per cent and 27 per cent, respectively). Although over the past week, Liberal support in both province ...
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