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Culture


RSS FeedsChantal Hébert: Trudeau´s Liberals have the edge on Scheer´s Conservatives in this pre-election season
(The Star Food)

 
 

12 august 2019 22:13:47

 
Chantal Hébert: Trudeau´s Liberals have the edge on Scheer´s Conservatives in this pre-election season
(The Star Food)
 


MONTREAL—Canada’s two main parties may be tied in voting intentions at the national level, but the pre-election season has so far been kinder to Justin Trudeau’s Liberals than to Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives.The subtext of the national polls is that the first are doing better than the numbers suggest while the second are running in place.Much of the credit for the restoring of a modest Liberal edge is owed not so much to the strategic genius of the incumbents as to some chronic weaknesses of their main rivals.The concentration of Conservative party support in the Prairies is a big part of that party’s problem. It masks a less-than-optimal performance in the larger voting markets of central Canada. But other factors are also in play.The competition for government remains a two-way battle between the Liberals and the Conservatives.In the past, a strong NDP has tended to be a winning condition for the Conservatives. It was a key element in the majority victories of Brian Mulroney in 1988 and Stephen Harper in 2011.In the reverse, the NDP was at low ebb for much of the Jean Chrétien decade. Short of a dramatic shift in New Democrat fortunes Scheer will not be able to count on Jagmeet Singh to bleed the Liberals on his behalf in October.In B.C. where the NDP elected its second-largest provincial contingent in 2015, the Green party is breathing down its neck.In Quebec where the party under Thomas Mulcair and Jack Layton elected its largest contingent of MPs in the last two elections, the NDP is polling in single digits, and fighting for fourth place against the Greens.Now that the Bloc Québécois has gotten its act together, non-Liberal Quebec voters are more likely to rediscover the sovereigntist party than to give Singh a second look.The Liberals remain the dominant force in Quebec. Two recent polls — Abacus and Léger Marketing — pegged Trudeau’s lead in his home-province at more than 10 points.At t ...


 
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