A stomach churning drop of up to 61 per cent in the number of home sales in some municipalities around Toronto could translate to a single-digit decline in regional prices by the end of the month, says a realtor who has crunched the numbers.John Pasalis of Realosophy, found that Toronto region ground-level home sales — detached, semi-detached and town houses — dropped 26 per cent overall between April 20 and May 20 — the period directly following the provincial Fair Housing plan announcement designed to cool real estate speculation in the area.Meantime, another data-tracking brokerage, Condos.ca, is showing that prices per square foot are down nearly 1 per cent in the last 60 days on its rolling 60-day average."A nervousness has crept in and seems to be taking hold quite quickly," said Andrew Harrild, vice-president of Condos.ca.The Realosophy analysis shows York Region, which has seen a higher level of investment buying, having the most significant drop in the number of re-sale home transactions — 61 per cent in Richmond Hill; 46 per cent in Markham and 44 per cent in Newmarket.Durham Region, long considered one of the last pockets of affordability, saw the only increase in the area — about 15 per cent in Pickering and 11 per cent in Whitby.Sales were down 23 per cent in Toronto in Realosophy`s analysis.Typically, real estate prices are compared year over year. This month`s home prices will still be up compared to May 2016, said Pasalis."But when you start looking at this May compared to April, we`re probably going to see prices fall. Usually prices don`t fall from April to May. Those are peak months. I think we`ll see prices falling maybe 5 or 7 per cent," he said.That could reflect the trapped state of home sellers, who have already bought a new house and are struggling to sell their old property so they accept a lower price."Of all the sellers out there, half of them aren`t motivated, the other half ...
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